To say Ashraf Qasi was disappointing speaking at LSE on 'What next for Sudan?' would be akin to saying politicians can be a little frustrating when asked to make clear decisions or give straight answers.

Qasi is a well versed diplomat, speaking yet managing to say nothing. He ignored the day to day problems being created by the NCP, such as insecurity leading to instability through arming and mobilizing proxy militia and bureaucratically obstructing critical phases of internal peace agreements, and suggested the NCP has an authentic political will in regards to implementation of the CPA and in engagement with the UN.

Naive, ignorant, disinterested, manipulated, or manipulative?

If you have ever been to a pantomime you will be familiar with the 'she's behind you' and 'oh yes it is. oh no it isn't' culture. well in response to former UNAMID heads claims in line with what the NCP have wanted them to say for a while...The WAR in DARFUR in NOT OVER and it is an insult to the people still suffering from it to say it is.

I recently read something on this topic that could not be more accurate. It stated, 'These men distort reality in order to pursue their own political agendas. What happens on the ground is merely inconvenient fact to them."

If ever there is further need for more evidence to suggest Ocampo’s charges are warranted, what better than looking at the behaviour of the authorities in South Darfur at this very time.

Even post ICC charges against President Bashir, which cite the President as being responsible for creating a state apparatus designed to malign and persecute specific populations, the state continues to obstruct vital aid and block commercial transport to locations inhabited vulnerable populations.

The UN has identified a ‘serious problem in South Darfur’ regarding the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) and National Security, which UN officials say are obstructing NGOs from accessing vulnerable populations, especially Zaghawa, Fur and Masalit populations; the three tribes Ocampo accused Bashir of carrying out acts of genocide against.

Brace yourself Darfur, this government may just do the unthinkable.

Hasn’t it already you may ask? Well in many ways yes, though the perceived capacity of the NCP government for cruelty and violence may not be deep enough.

How brave the people of Darfur can be. Civilians terrorised by Bashir’s government and by government backed militias, their homes burned, their families torn apart and their loved ones killed. The people of Darfur never cease to amaze. Their resilience is breathtaking.

IDPs in Darfur have been expressing their support for an indictment of President Bashir, saying they intend organise demonstrations in major locations, regardless of the likely police and national security aggression towards them.

Of course it is unlikely the demonstrations will go ahead, in Sudan such freedoms are not prevailed, usually plans are beaten out of people before they are even hatched.

 

Will the world have the courage to see past the big show?

President Bashir’s visit to Darfur has been uneventful in terms of the unpredictable.

There was the flag waving – the flags were distributed by government authorities the days before his visits to the major cities. The chanting – government employees were given instruction to attend, schools and businesses closed by order of the police and national security conducted round ups the days before to assure reasonable attendance. The militia presence and anti-UN aggression – large numbers of unarmed militias attended the visits, the UN also experiencing security problems with stones being thrown at UNAMID cars.

How the tables have turned on a government once deemed untouchable.

President Bashir has a new reality with which to manage.

No longer does he have the luxury of working in grey areas and lies, even his reliable supporters such as the Arab league and AU are putting him in an impossible position. Though they may be supporting Bashir against the ICC charges, they have done so with a  crippling demand; Bashir must hand over Ali Kushayb and Ahmed Haroun the two men indicted by the ICC for war crimes and crimes against humanity, the latter Bashir appointed as the Minister for Humanitarian affairs even after the indictments.

  
Major cities in Darfur were quiet on Friday night. Usually they are buzzing with movements and activities. But this past Friday, the Friday after ICC prosecutor Ocampo charged President Bashir of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity it was most definitely quiet.

Sudan would have you perhaps believe the silence is because people have been so affected by the ICC they do not want to socialize. Maybe the headlines in Khartoum papers being filled with how the Sudanese are enraged with the ICC announcement with accompanying pictures of perhaps 12-20 people up close to the lense of the camera for the dramatic shot of a protest.

But the reality is, the silent majority are in favour of Ocampo and the ICC charges.

The conflict in Darfur may soon be waged in the streets of Khartoum, but whatever way it goes, it will be the Darfuris who immediately loose.

As the government of Sudan continues to fly Janjaweed and Sudanese armed forces to Khartoum and the opposition continue to build in strategic locations, the forthcoming weeks look bleak.

The silent masses in Darfur are happy over the charges towards Bashir, though they are fearful of showing their approval and of course of what will happen now.

The world should applaud Luis Moreno-Ocampo.

The ICC prosecutor has carried out his duties with aplomb. He has fought off the politics, the attempts at personal sabotage, the criticisms and the doubts, and continued about his work, focusing on the legal details and the facts on what has been happening in Darfur.

The charges he has made against Sudanese President Omer Hassan Ahmed Al Bashir could not be more accurate. Ocampo accuses the President of implementing a “criminal plan based on the mobilization of the whole state apparatus, including the armed forces, the intelligence services, the diplomatic and public information bureaucracies, and the justice system”, and he could not be more right.